Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft))
2.1 A Simple Estimation Quiz
Table 2-1, appearing on the following page, contains a quiz designed to test your estimation skills. Please read and observe the following directions carefully:
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For each question, fill in the upper and lower bounds that, in your opinion, give you a 90% chance of including the correct value. Be careful not to make your ranges either too wide or too narrow. Make them wide enough so that, in your best judgment, the ranges give you a 90% chance of including the correct answer. Please do not research any of the answers—this quiz is intended to assess your estimation skills, not your research skills. You must fill in an answer for each item; an omitted item will be scored as an incorrect item. Please limit your time on this exercise to 10 minutes.
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(Also, you might want to photocopy the quiz before taking it so that the next person who reads this book can take it, too.)
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The correct answers to this exercise (the latitude of Shanghai, for example) are listed in Appendix B in the back of the book. Give yourself one point for each of your ranges that includes the related correct answer.
| [Low Estimate - High Estimate] | Description |
|---|---|
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Surface temperature of the Sun |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Latitude of Shanghai |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Area of the Asian continent |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | The year of Alexander the Great's birth |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Total value of U.S. currency in circulation in 2004 |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Total volume of the Great Lakes |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Worldwide box office receipts for the movie Titanic |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Total length of the coastline of the Pacific Ocean |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Number of book titles published in the U.S. since 1776 |
| [ _______________ – _______________ ] | Heaviest blue whale ever recorded |
| Source: Inspired by a similar quiz in Programming Pearls, Second Edition (Bentley 2000). | |
| This quiz is from Software Estimation by Steve McConnell (Microsoft Press, 2006) and is © 2006 Steve McConnell. All Rights Reserved. Permission to copy this quiz is granted provided that this copyright notice is included. | |
How did you do? (Don't feel bad. Most people do poorly on this quiz!) Please write your score here: _____________
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